Green Wednesday Predictions For Cannabis Sales


103
103 points

Predictions for 2020

Headset

Headset forecasts an even larger than usual uptick in recreational cannabis sales on Green Wednesday this year for several reasons:

–  In all adult use cannabis states tracked by Headset, the total market has grown by at least 20% in total revenue over last year (when comparing October 2019 to October 2020).

– During the COVID-19 pandemic we have seen significant changes in consumer behavior. In March and April 2020, when many states were enforcing stay-at-home orders, the cannabis market saw a decrease in total transaction volume, but a significant increase in average basket size. This makes sense because customers were likely trying to minimize their trips to the dispensary, so they bought more per trip.Through the summer and into Autumn, average baskets have stayed significantly higher than they were pre-COVID, but transaction volume has crept back up to nearly the same level it was at in February. These two trends combined indicate a ‘new normal’ in the cannabis industry driving the highest monthly revenue totals since the beginning of the legal sales.

– Additionally, with many states reinstating COVID-19 lockdown measures, and advising against travel and social get togethers, Thanksgiving 2020 will be unlike any in living memory. With millions of Americans being asked to stay at home for the holiday, frankly, what else is there to do?

– Edibles have performed well throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. That along with their usual strong sales lifts during the holiday season leads us to predict Edibles and Beverages to again be the categories with the biggest sales lifts on Green Wednesday this year. Both product formats are conducive to indoor consumption (for those that don’t want to smoke or vape in their homes), and THC infused Beverages are often associated with celebration, as they are increasingly seen as a substitute for alcoholic beverages.

Akerna

“On average, Thanksgiving tends to be one of the Top 5 sales holidays of the year, and we expect that trend to continue this year,” said James Ahrendt, Business Intelligence Architect, Akerna (NASDAQ: KERN). “In the past, we’ve seen huge spikes in sales on Wednesday and Friday since most dispensaries are closed on Thursdays.”

Akerna anticipates that the average order total will be around $82.30 for adult-use customers and $128.46 for medical consumers, representing an increase of approximately $13 compared to the average order total on any other given day of the year.

Additional Thanksgiving Holiday Predictions:

Sales by product type:

  • Flower – 42%

  • Cartridge/Pens – 37%

  • Concentrates – 11%

  • Infused Edibles – 8%

  • Other – 2%

Sales by Gender

  • Male – 64%

  • Female – 36%

Sales by age group:

  • Under 30 – 28%

  • 30-40 –30%

  • 40-50 – 19%

  • 50-60 –12%

  • Over 60 – 11%

LeafLink

The cannabis industry, as measured by cumulative wholesale transaction volume growth through the LeafLink marketplace, increased by 40% between the start of the pandemic in March and October 2020. Overall, cumulative wholesale transaction volume is up 60% through the end of October compared to the start of the year, and we expect the growth trend to remain healthy through the end of the year. – Alex Feldman, General Manager of LeafLink Insights



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